Who is Buying What From Where

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Who is Buying What From Where?
In North America, Retail Is Detail
By Tom Burke

 

November 27th 2015
Welcome to America's day of consumer blowout and retail frenzy called Black Friday, the official launch of Christmas shopping season. It is US Thanksgiving, no doubt a ritual giving thanks for all the spectacular retailers in America! But for investors, this year's pilgrimage to big box and shopping mall mecca has been eclipsed by the new wave of the online secular movement, brought to you by Amazon (AMZN). In short, bricks and mortar retailers have been clocked in the last few months, and the crumbling started with Macy's (M) numbers in August and most recently in November. For the iconic retailer of New York's Thanksgiving Day Parade and the Christmas Classic movie Miracle on 34th Street, the meltdown started with soft summer tourism traffic due to a strong $US, and then came a lousy back to school and warm fall weather, an autumn without boots and coats, a global warming apocalypse! 

 

Amazon vs Macy’s: The Online Disruptor vs The Need for a Miracle on 34th

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Contagion: The contagion has spread: Nordstrom's (JWN) maybe the classiest D-store of them all, Dillard's (DDS), TJ MAAX (TJX) home of Canada's Winner's, our own Hudson Bay (HBC) which is home to Saks Fifth Ave and now some of the biggest stores in Germany, as all of them are down, and Hard! Even the on fire category of "Athleisure" with Nike (NKE) leading the way and trail blazer Under Armour (UA) got weak and took away the solid footing of a great stock like Foot Locker (FL). 

 

TJX vs Nordstrom. Discount is still a Winner, Pedigree is in the Penalty Box

Foot Locker vs Nike: “Athleisure" is Still a Growth Trend. Buy the Shoes or Buy The Stores?

Intimacy and Costco, No Kidding? Who was immune?? Not only Amazon, but yup, Costco (COST). From here on in it is Costco and Amazon, so welcome to the boring world of “Costcazon”. That's all you have to know.

 

But even in the world of apparel and “retailageddon” L-Brand (LB) home of Victoria Secret’s intimate category domination and Lululemon (LULU) the sexy new-age niches have regained sexy market mo-jo.

 

L Brands vs Lululemon: Sexy and Self Aware is Still Sexy… but Self Pre-Occupied!  

…..and The Costco Machine Keeps Rolling

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Currency Conundrum: We Own Too Many Loonies, We Need More $US…but let’s wait a sec!

So back to the message from our last dispatch when I said that a temporary bottom may be in on  the CDN dollar. As you can see, it pays longer term to have $US exposure to hedge investment diversification, travel, or just being a Canuck snowbird going down south every winter to your condo.

 

Now here is an old trick I learned from strategist David Prince. If you want an early signal on the CDN dollar, look at the Australian dollar (see chart). It has a knack for leading us and is much more volatile. …..and it may be building a base. Notice the three consecutive higher lows.

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A good read, we’re posting this one again: David Rosenberg's Bullish stance on the Loonie

Big Picture Stock Charts: Toppy and Sloppy

 

Les Voicis, here they are. These markets suffer from fear, global economic cooling, climate warming, commodity meltdown, anxiety, ADHD. But yet there are all kinds of opportunities sprouting up in oversold, unknown, and secular growth stories. It’s called a Market of Stocks, not the indexes which, as you see continue to be, wonky. But seasonally, in our view, this may be the best time of year to accumulate your favorite stuff….In the stores and in the market!

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To learn more contact the Burke Papapanos Team

 

Tom Burke
Senior Investment Advisor
T: 514.284.1560 | TF: 800.361.4805
E: tom.burke@canaccord.com

 

Tony Papapanos

Vice President, Investment Advisor

T: 514.844.5483 | TF: 800.361.4805

E: tony.papapanos@canaccord.com

 

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